🏈 AFL Round Round 9 — Model Overview
Round Round 9 of the 2026 Australian Football League season is locked in and our XGBoost model has processed every fixture. Here's what the data is saying this week — plus our qualifying tips for the round.
Our recent AFL record: 16W/1L (94% strike rate) on qualifying tips over the last 4 weeks. Every result is tracked publicly at puntersedge.online/record.
How We Pick Our AFL Round Round 9 Tips
For each Round Round 9 fixture, the model analyses rolling form (last 3, 5 and 10 games), head-to-head records, home ground advantage, score differentials and current momentum. Only games where the model reaches 65% confidence or higher generate a tip — everything else is a NO BET.
This round the model has identified 10 qualifying tips. Here's the full breakdown:
Round Round 9 Fixture Tips
Fremantle vs Hawthorn
📅 Thursday 07 May at Perth Stadium
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
Brisbane vs Carlton
📅 Friday 08 May at Gabba
Port Adelaide vs Western Bulldogs
📅 Friday 08 May at Adelaide Oval
North Melbourne vs Sydney
📅 Saturday 09 May at Docklands
GWS vs Essendon
📅 Saturday 09 May at Sydney Showground
Gold Coast vs St Kilda
📅 Saturday 09 May at Marrara Oval
Geelong vs Collingwood
📅 Saturday 09 May at M.C.G.
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
Melbourne vs West Coast
📅 Sunday 10 May at Docklands
Richmond vs Adelaide
📅 Sunday 10 May at M.C.G.
Brisbane vs Geelong
📅 Thursday 14 May at Gabba
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
Sydney vs Collingwood
📅 Friday 15 May at S.C.G.
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
Gold Coast vs Port Adelaide
📅 Friday 15 May at Marrara Oval
Adelaide vs North Melbourne
📅 Saturday 16 May at Adelaide Oval
Melbourne vs Hawthorn
📅 Saturday 16 May at M.C.G.
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
Carlton vs Western Bulldogs
📅 Saturday 16 May at Docklands
Staking Guide for Round Round 9
As always, size your bets according to the tip tier:
- 💰 VALUE (1u) — 65–74% model confidence. Solid edge but some uncertainty.
- 💪 STRONG (2u) — 75–84% confidence. Double your standard unit.
- 🏆 BANKER (3u) — 85%+ confidence. Maximum recommended stake.
Keep your unit size at 1–2% of your total bankroll. Consistency over a full season is where the edge shows up — not in any single round.
Get Every AFL Tip This Season
Members receive the full AFL card every round delivered directly to their Telegram DMs at 7am AEST on game day — alongside NBA, EPL, LaLiga, Bundesliga and Tennis coverage. $29/month. No lock-in. Cancel anytime.
Or join the free channel for one tip per day: t.me/ThePuntersEdgeAU
18+ only. Please gamble responsibly. Set a deposit limit before you bet. Gambling Help Online: 1800 858 858.